The UAE is set to leave OPEC on May 1, 2026, marking a significant political and economic shift that could redefine its role in the global oil market. This decision follows years of frustration with OPEC production quotas that limited the UAE’s output.
As of early Tuesday, the UAE produced 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil before the Iran war disrupted regional stability. Currently, its production capacity stands at approximately 4.85 million b/d.
In 2024, UAE crude oil production averaged 2.95 million b/d, reflecting a notable decline due to ongoing conflicts, including the Iran war. The conflict has caused significant disruptions, leading to a 44 percent slump in UAE production following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The UAE accounted for around 12 percent of total OPEC output before its exit. Its departure is expected to further fracture cooperation among remaining OPEC members.
Analysts suggest this move may strengthen the UAE’s relationship with the US, allowing it to act independently in the oil market. Dr. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi stated, “The UAE is redefining its role from a producer within a bloc to a balancing producer that contributes to market stability through its ability to act.”
Moreover, experts like Will Wechsler believe that policymakers in the UAE are increasingly disinterested in being part of OPEC due to its diminishing influence.
The timing and unilateral nature of this decision indicate how intra-Gulf disputes regarding responses to the Iran war could reshape Middle Eastern dynamics.
Landon Derentz remarked that the UAE’s exit marks a symbolic political blow to OPEC’s perceived influence. The organization faces challenges as it navigates these changes amidst rising tensions in the region.